The next four maps are from consecutive runs of the GFS showing how difficult it is at this point to predict where the heaviest rain will occur. Only time will tell as the models get a better handle on the situation. We really need this to speed up and keep the heavy rainfall to a minimum. As intense as this storm will be, there's an equally intense area of high pressure in front of it which should make it a slow mover. Obviously, the slower the system, the heavier the rainfall amounts will be. We still don't know where exactly the axis of heaviest rain will set up and how fast the system will move. Many uncertainties still exist as this event unfolds next week.
Big weather event coming drivers#
The National Weather Service has run a campaign over the years called, "Turn Around, Don't Drown." Many of those fatalities were due to drivers trying to cross flooded roads. While, it's too early to predict the severity of the rainfall, keep in mind Arkansas ranked #1 in the nation for flash flood fatalities in 2011. The specifics can't be answered yet as this is still in the long range, but I think it would be wise to start talking about it now especially in light of what was released from the National Weather Service recently. While severe weather will be possible, the bigger threat may end up being very heavy rainfall. There's so much on the table to watch with a system like this and I'll do that for you right here on the Arkansas Weather Blog.Īs you know, I have been keeping an eye on an incredibly strong area of low pressure aloft which will affect the plains into the mid south next week. Right now, the models show very little in the way of instability, but it's something worth watching.
In this situation, these storms would produce hail. I'm also going to watch for the potential for widely scattered thunderstorms if any surface heating can take place. It's there, but I think the potential for heavy rain and flooding will be higher especially since the rain will fall across hilly terrain.Īs this area of low pressure aloft cuts off and meanders through the mid south Wednesday and Thursday, there will be a pocket of very cold air aloft. One other aspect to the system will be the severe weather potential. As we get closer, we'll nail down the details. This is a not a matter of "if it will rain?", but "how much will it rain?" At this point, I think it's safe to say western Arkansas could see 3-6''. If it speeds up, those amounts will not be realized. If it takes a slow approach, yes, that amount will be possible. Again, this all depends on the speed of the system. Do I buy that? While it's completely within the realm of possibilities, I'm a bit skeptical. The HPC says 7'' will be possible in this location. First of all, I axis of heaviest rainfall isn't set in stone, but it appears eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas will see the most. I have been in the process of reviewing the latest model data and I still have some uncertainties next week.
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